March 24, 2026 — Investors seeking potential earnings surprises in the basic materials sector may want to monitor Newmont Corporation and B2Gold Corp, according to analysis from Zacks Investment Research. The firm’s proprietary Earnings ESP metric suggests both mining stocks could report quarterly results above Wall Street expectations.
The Earnings ESP Strategy
Zacks uses its Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) system to identify stocks that may outperform earnings estimates. The model compares the most recent analyst revisions, known as the Most Accurate Estimate, against the broader Zacks Consensus Estimate. A positive percentage difference indicates a potential earnings beat.
When combined with a favorable Zacks Rank, this approach has historically identified stocks that reported positive surprises approximately 70% of the time. According to Zacks, a ten-year backtest of this strategy showed average annual returns of 28.3%.
Newmont Corporation Analysis
Newmont Corporation (NEM) currently holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Analysis shows the company’s Most Accurate Estimate stood at $0.55 per share ahead of a past earnings release, compared to a consensus estimate of $0.53. This difference produced an Earnings ESP of +3.15%.
As the world’s leading gold mining company, Newmont’s performance is closely tied to commodity prices and operational efficiency. The positive ESP signal suggested analysts had recently revised estimates upward based on new information.
B2Gold Corp’s Strong Buy Rating
B2Gold Corp (BTG) previously held a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of rated stocks. Prior to a scheduled earnings report, its Most Accurate Estimate was $0.08 per share versus a consensus of $0.07.
This created an Earnings ESP of +8.11%. The Vancouver-based gold producer operates mines in multiple countries, and its stock often reacts to both earnings results and gold market dynamics.
Using Earnings Signals in Trading
Quarterly earnings reports remain critical events for stock prices. Positive surprises can trigger immediate price jumps, sometimes exceeding 10% in a single session. Conversely, missing estimates often leads to sharp declines.
The Zacks methodology focuses on analyst estimate revisions as a leading indicator. The premise is that analysts who update their models shortly before an earnings release may possess fresh, material information about company performance.
Investors can screen for stocks with positive Earnings ESP values using tools provided by Zacks and other financial data platforms. This approach forms one component of a broader investment research process.
Basic Materials Sector Context
The basic materials sector, which includes mining companies like Newmont and B2Gold, is cyclical and sensitive to global economic conditions. Earnings in this sector fluctuate with commodity prices, currency exchange rates, and production costs.
Successful earnings prediction requires analyzing both company-specific operations and broader macroeconomic trends. While quantitative tools like Earnings ESP provide one signal, fundamental analysis of balance sheets and mine economics remains essential.
Zacks Investment Research, founded in 1978, developed its ranking system based on the predictive power of earnings estimate revisions. The firm provides investment research and screening tools for individual investors through its website. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
