March 17, 2026 — Coffee futures advanced for a second consecutive session, with arabica prices reaching a one-week high. The rally is supported by concerns over global supply logistics following the closure of a major shipping route, even as analysts project a record global harvest.
Shipping Disruption Lifts Prices
May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed up 1.74%, while May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) gained 1.21%. Market analysts attribute the strength to new supply chain risks. The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global shipping lanes, increasing freight rates, insurance costs, and fuel expenses for importers and roasters worldwide.
This logistical hurdle introduces a cost premium for physical coffee deliveries, providing underlying support for futures contracts. The disruption comes despite other market factors that had recently pressured prices lower.
Record Crop Forecasts Provide Counterweight
Earlier in the week, coffee prices had fallen. Arabica hit a two-week low on Monday, and May robusta reached a contract low. Abundant rains in Brazil’s key growing regions eased immediate crop concerns. Data from Somar Meteorologia showed Brazil’s largest arabica region, Minas Gerais, received rainfall 139% above the historical average last week.
Production forecasts continue to signal ample supply. Last Thursday, StoneX raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop to a record 75.3 million bags. This was an increase from its November forecast of 70.7 million bags.
Mixed Data from Brazil and Vietnam
Export data from Brazil presented a mixed picture. The nation’s green coffee exports in February fell 27% year-over-year to 2.3 million bags, according to Cecafe. Brazil’s Trade Ministry separately reported a 17.4% y/y decline in total coffee exports for the month to 142,000 metric tons.
Conversely, exports from Vietnam, the world’s top robusta producer, are soaring. The country’s National Statistics Office reported a 14% year-over-year increase in coffee exports for January-February 2026. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports had already jumped 17.5%.
Inventory and Long-Term Projections
Rising exchange inventories have acted as a bearish counterpoint. ICE-monitored arabica stocks rose to a 5.5-month high on Monday. Robust inventories also remain elevated compared to recent levels.
Long-term institutional forecasts largely agree on rising global output. On March 4, Rabobank projected global coffee production would reach a record 180 million bags in the 2026/27 season. The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service, in a December report, forecast world production would increase 2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags for 2025/26.
Recent Price Context
The current rally follows a sharp sell-off in February. Arabica coffee fell to a 16-month low on February 24, with robusta hitting a 7.25-month low the previous day. Those declines were fueled by expectations of a bumper Brazilian harvest.
On February 5, Conab, Brazil’s official crop agency, forecast the nation’s 2026 coffee production would climb 17.2% to a record 66.2 million bags. The agency’s data is a key benchmark for the market.
The coffee market now balances near-term logistical friction against a fundamental outlook for abundant supply. Traders are weighing the immediate cost impacts of shipping disruptions against the weight of anticipated record harvests in Brazil and Vietnam. For real-time commodity data, refer to the ICE Futures U.S. exchange and official reports from Brazil’s Conab agency.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
