Corn futures closed lower on Monday as traders positioned themselves ahead of a major U.S. government report on planting intentions and grain stocks.
The most-active May 2026 contract settled at $4.55 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents. July futures fell 6 cents to $4.67 1/2. The national average cash price dropped 6 cents to $4.13 1/2, according to CmdtyView data.
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Market Awaits Key USDA Numbers
The pressure came ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s closely watched Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, scheduled for release on Tuesday, March 31. Industry analysts surveyed ahead of the report expect farmers to plant 94.37 million acres of corn this year. That figure would represent a decline of 4.4 million acres from the previous year.
Market watchers are also anticipating a significant increase in stored corn. The average trade guess for March 1 corn stocks is 9.104 billion bushels. If realized, that would be 957 million bushels larger than stocks held at the same time last year. The prospect of more grain in storage and fewer acres being planted created a bearish tone for prices.
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“The pre-report estimates are setting a cautious tone,” one market analyst noted. “The market is pricing in a larger supply cushion.”
Export Pace Offers Support
Despite the day’s losses, underlying demand for U.S. corn remains solid. Data from the USDA’s Federal Grain Inspection Service showed export shipments of 1.789 million metric tons for the week ending March 26. That volume was 5.1% higher than the previous week and 4.14% above the same week last year.
Mexico was the top destination, taking 369,416 metric tons. Japan imported 326,353 MT, and South Korea received 278,764 MT.
For the 2025/26 marketing year that began September 1, total exports have reached 46.37 MMT. That is 36.11% ahead of the pace set during the same period last year. The USDA also reported a private export sale of 145,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations on Monday morning.
Brazil’s Crop Progress
Attention is also on Southern Hemisphere production. Brazilian consultancy AgRural estimates the country’s second corn crop was 99% planted as of last Thursday. The firm slightly trimmed its production forecast for that crop by 0.5 MMT to 135.7 million metric tons.
Brazil is a major competitor to U.S. corn in global export markets. Its harvest timeline later in the year can influence U.S. pricing and demand.
What Traders Are Watching
The immediate focus is the USDA data. A confirmed drop in intended acreage could provide some price support by tightening the long-term supply outlook. But a confirmed large stocks number would confirm ample near-term supply, potentially limiting rallies.
The strong year-over-year export pace is a positive fundamental factor. However, traders note that demand must continue to absorb the available supply to prevent further price weakness. Weather during the U.S. planting season, which is just beginning, will become a larger market driver in the coming weeks.
For more official data, readers can refer to the USDA’s website and the CME Group’s futures listings.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
