Cotton futures closed lower on Tuesday, extending recent weakness as a firmer U.S. dollar and rising certified stocks weighed on prices. The market also absorbed the latest weekly planting data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Market Prices and Pressure Points
May 2026 cotton futures settled at 71.31 cents per pound, down 36 points. The July contract fell 30 points to 73.54 cents, while December futures dropped 28 points to 75.47 cents. According to data from Barchart, the session saw contracts down between 28 and 40 points.
Also read: Cotton Futures Drop on Dollar Strength, Crop Data
The U.S. dollar index, which often moves inversely to commodity prices, was a headwind. It traded lower on the day but remained above the 99 level. Market data shows the index was down $0.375 at $99.480 during the session. A stronger dollar makes U.S. cotton more expensive for foreign buyers.
Certified cotton stocks deliverable against ICE futures contracts rose significantly. Data from the Intercontinental Exchange shows stocks increased by 14,972 bales on April 6. The total certified stock level reached 128,213 bales. Rising supplies can ease concerns about near-term availability, putting downward pressure on front-month contracts.
Also read: Corn Futures Drop on Oil Slide, Pre-Report Caution
Planting Progress and Global Prices
The USDA’s weekly Crop Progress report, released on Monday, showed U.S. planting is underway. As of Sunday, 5% of the national cotton crop was in the ground. This pace matches the five-year average and is 1 percentage point ahead of the same time last year.
Industry watchers note that early planting progress is often weather-dependent and can shift quickly. This data point was largely neutral for the market, suggesting conditions are normal for now.
Other price indicators showed mixed signals. The Cotlook A Index, a benchmark for global physical cotton prices, was last reported up 75 points on April 2 at 81.50 cents per pound. Meanwhile, The Seam’s online trading platform reported 5,473 bales sold on Thursday at an average price of 68.66 cents.
The USDA’s Adjusted World Price (AWP), used in calculating marketing loan benefits for U.S. producers, was raised by 252 points last Thursday to 56.99 cents per pound.
Broader Market Context
The weakness in cotton occurred alongside a sell-off in the energy complex. Crude oil futures were down more than $2 per barrel on Tuesday. Reports indicated the U.S. and Iran were reviewing a Pakistan-proposed two-week ceasefire ahead of a deadline that evening. Lower energy costs can reduce production expenses for synthetic fibers, a substitute for cotton, potentially affecting long-term demand.
What this means for traders is a market facing conflicting signals. Solid planting progress and ample certified stocks suggest adequate supply. But global price benchmarks like the Cotlook A Index holding firmer could indicate underlying demand support.
Analysts often look to export sales data for clearer demand signals. The next USDA export sales report will be a key indicator of whether price weakness is stimulating international buying.
What Comes Next
Market attention will now turn to weekly U.S. export sales data and continued monitoring of planting weather across the Cotton Belt. Traders will assess whether the recent price decline is enough to attract new buying interest from major importers like China and Vietnam.
The pace of certifications into the ICE delivery system will also be watched. A continued rapid build in deliverable stocks could maintain pressure on nearby futures contracts. For producers, the recent rise in the AWP provides a slightly higher safety net for the crop being planted.
According to standard disclosure from Barchart, the author of the original report did not hold positions in any securities mentioned. All information is for informational purposes.
For more data on commodity markets, you can review reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture or market summaries from the Intercontinental Exchange.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
