April 11, 2026 — Soybean futures closed the week higher, powered by a sharp rally in soymeal. The move came despite data showing export commitments are running behind last year’s pace.
May soybean futures settled at $11.75 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents on the day. For the week, the front-month contract gained 12 1/4 cents. New-crop November futures also rose, adding 5 1/4 cents to close at $11.57 3/4.
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The real story was in soybean meal. May meal futures jumped $7.50 to $14.20 per ton on Friday. That capped a weekly surge of $16.60. The rally followed a morning report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture confirming a private export sale of 100,000 metric tons of soybean meal to Italy.
Export Pace Lags Behind Averages
Weekly export sales data, released on Thursday, painted a more mixed picture for the overall soybean market. According to the USDA, total export commitments for the current marketing year stand at 37.905 million metric tons (MMT).
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That figure is 18% lower than commitments at the same time last year. Industry watchers note the commitments have reached 90% of the USDA’s full-year estimate. But that pace is behind the five-year average of 95% for this date.
Actual shipments are also trailing. Data shows 30.52 MMT has been shipped, which is 73% of the USDA’s projection. The average pace for this point in the season is 84%.
This suggests underlying demand may be softer than expected. The lagging shipments could pressure basis levels at U.S. ports if it persists.
Speculators Trim Soybean Bets, Boost Oil
Friday’s release of Commitments of Traders (COT) data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed shifting positions among large speculators.
Managed money funds cut 23,777 contracts from their net long position in soybean futures and options in the week ending April 7. Their overall net long position now stands at 189,630 contracts.
In contrast, speculators extended their record net long position in soybean oil. They added 14,873 contracts, bringing their total net long to 150,682 contracts. This divergence highlights where traders see relative value. Meal’s rally occurred despite this speculative pullback in whole beans.
Market Drivers and Related Moves
The strength in meal provided critical support for soybean prices. Soy oil futures moved in the opposite direction, closing down 24 to 61 points on the day. For the week, May soy oil lost 185 points.
Broader energy markets also saw pressure. Crude oil futures fell $2.24 per barrel on Friday. Analysts attributed the drop to traders reducing risk ahead of scheduled talks between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend.
The cash market reflected the futures strength. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price rose 11 cents to $11.08.
What Comes Next for Soy Complex
The market heads into the weekend with clear momentum in the meal sector. The large sale to Italy confirms international demand for U.S. protein feed is present. But the slower overall export pace for whole beans remains a concern.
Traders will watch weather patterns closely as planting season progresses in the Northern Hemisphere. Any delays could shift focus to new-crop supply risks. For now, the meal market is in charge. Its ability to hold these gains will likely determine the direction for soybeans in the near term.
For real-time commodity data and analysis, visit the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders reports or the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s data portal.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
