April 15, 2026 — Cotton futures closed lower on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and a sharp decline in crude oil prices. The sell-off extended across the forward curve, with the most-active contracts falling between 11 and 61 points.
Market Pressure Points
According to settlement data from Barchart, the May 2026 contract fell 19 points to close at 74.34 cents per pound. The July contract dropped 11 points to 76.52 cents. The new-crop December 2026 contract saw the largest decline, falling 61 points to 77.2 cents.
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Broader market moves contributed to the weakness. The U.S. dollar index was $0.278 lower at $97.885. But the real driver was crude oil, which plunged $7.01 per barrel. Reports suggesting potential talks between the U.S. and Iran weighed on energy markets. This matters for cotton because synthetic fibers like polyester are petroleum-based. When oil gets cheaper, it can make synthetics more competitive against natural cotton.
Planting Progress and Supply Data
Domestic fundamentals offered a mixed picture. The weekly Crop Progress report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) showed U.S. cotton planting at 7% complete as of April 13. That pace matches the five-year average.
Also read: Soybean Futures Drop on Planting Pace, Supply Data
Most major producing states were at or ahead of schedule. Texas, the largest producer, was an exception. Planting there was reported at 11%, lagging 1 percentage point behind its average pace for this time of year.
On the supply side, certified stockpiles are rising. Data from ICE Futures U.S. showed certified cotton stocks increased by 15,301 bales on Monday. The total now sits at 159,512 bales. Rising inventories can signal ample nearby supply, which often caps price rallies.
Cash Market and Price Indicators
The physical cash market showed some resilience. The Seam, an online cotton marketplace, reported 3,172 bales sold on April 13 at an average price of 72.95 cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index, a key global benchmark, was last quoted 10 points higher at 84.35 cents on April 10.
Another important figure moved higher. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Adjusted World Price (AWP) rose another 175 points last week to 58.74 cents per pound. The AWP is used to calculate marketing loan gains and deficiency payments for U.S. producers.
What this means for traders is a complex environment. The physical market is holding, but futures are reacting to macro-economic forces. The sharp drop in oil creates a headwind. Industry watchers note that sustained energy price weakness could shift textile demand toward cheaper synthetic alternatives.
What Comes Next for Cotton Prices
Attention now turns to weather and export demand. Timely planting in the U.S. South is positive for yield potential. But the Texas lag bears watching. Any further delays could introduce volatility.
The market will also monitor weekly U.S. export sales data. Strong demand can absorb rising stockpiles. Weakness would confirm the bearish tone set by Tuesday’s futures drop. For now, the charts show a market searching for direction amid competing signals.
You can track official USDA crop progress and condition reports on its publications website. ICE Futures U.S. provides daily certified stock reports on its market data page.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
