Cotton futures staged a midday turnaround on Friday, April 18, 2026, erasing morning declines to finish the session with solid gains. The reversal came amid a weaker U.S. dollar and despite a sharp drop in crude oil prices.
Market Moves and Data
According to data from Barchart, the most actively traded July 2026 contract closed at 79.23 cents per pound, up 110 points. The May contract settled at 76.73 cents, a gain of 103 points. The December contract added 96 points to finish at 79.95 cents.
Also read: Soybean Futures Mixed as Export Sales Hit Low
This upward move happened as the U.S. Dollar Index fell by $0.270 to $97.775. A weaker dollar can make U.S. cotton more affordable for foreign buyers. The rally occurred even as crude oil futures plummeted by $11.27 per barrel. Market reports attributed the oil sell-off to Iran agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns.
Export Figures Show a Mixed Picture
Recent U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data provides context for the cotton market’s current position. Export commitments for the 2025/26 marketing year total 10.409 million running bales. That figure is 1% below the level seen at this time last year.
Also read: Cotton Futures Rally Continues on Thursday
Industry watchers note that commitments have reached 92% of the USDA’s full-year forecast. This pace lags behind the five-year average of 100%. Actual exports shipped so far stand at 6.71 million running bales, representing 60% of the USDA’s projection. The typical pace for this date is 62%.
This suggests total demand is tracking slightly behind recent historical averages. But the midday price recovery indicates other factors may be providing support.
Spot Market and Supply Details
Other market indicators were firmer. The Cotlook ‘A’ Index, a key benchmark for global physical cotton prices, was 100 points higher on Thursday at 86.60 cents per pound. Data from The Seam electronic trading platform showed 4,014 bales sold on April 15 at an average price of 74.94 cents.
On the supply side, ICE certified cotton stocks were unchanged on April 16, holding at 162,367 bales. Steady certified stocks can sometimes indicate a balanced immediate supply picture. The Adjusted World Price (AWP), a mechanism used in U.S. farm programs, increased by 287 points on Thursday to 61.61 cents per pound.
What This Means for the Market
The session’s price action shows cotton finding buyers despite softer export data. The implication is that traders may be looking past current weekly figures toward longer-term supply fundamentals or technical chart levels. The market’s ability to rally in the face of a massive energy sell-off is also notable.
What this means for investors is a market demonstrating resilience. The close near the day’s highs could signal potential for further tests of recent trading ranges. Analysts will be watching for sustained export improvements to confirm the strength of underlying demand.
Market data in this report was sourced from Barchart and U.S. Department of Agriculture reports. For official futures and options data, see ICE Futures U.S. cotton reports.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
