April 25, 2026 — Cotton futures closed mostly lower on Friday, with the May contract the lone outlier, rising 20 points. The broader market saw declines of 1 to 12 points across most front-month contracts, according to Barchart data.
The US dollar index slipped 0.2622 points to 98.340, providing some support for dollar-denominated commodities. Crude oil fell 97 cents to $94.88 per barrel, adding pressure to the agricultural sector.
Also read: Wheat Futures Dip on Profit Taking, Spring Wheat Holds
Speculators Increase Bullish Positions
Speculative traders added 17,639 contracts to their net long position in cotton futures and options during the week ending April 21. That pushed the net long to 34,464 contracts, the highest level in nearly two years.
The increase suggests growing confidence among traders that cotton prices may find support in the coming weeks. But the broader market data paints a mixed picture.
Also read: Lean Hog Futures Fall on Friday, June Contracts Up for Week
Export Sales Lag Historical Pace
Export commitments stand at 10.58 million running bales, 2% below last year’s total for the same period. That represents 93% of the USDA’s export projection, lagging the 101% five-year average sales pace.
The implication is that demand from overseas buyers has softened compared to historical norms. Industry watchers note that the pace of sales will need to accelerate to meet the USDA’s full-year forecast.
Physical Market Indicators
The Seam reported 4,899 bales sold on Thursday at an average price of 71.79 cents per pound. The Cotlook A Index, a key benchmark for world cotton prices, fell 215 points on April 23 to 88.40 cents.
ICE certified cotton stocks remained steady at 165,681 bales as of April 23. The Adjusted World Price rose 365 points on Thursday afternoon to 65.26 cents per pound.
Contract Settlements
| Contract | Close (cents/lb) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 77.00 | +0.20 |
| Jul 2026 | 79.36 | -0.09 |
| Dec 2026 | 80.58 | -0.10 |
The May contract posted a modest gain for the day but remains down 40 points for the week. The July and December contracts both lost ground, reflecting bearish sentiment in the deferred months.
What’s Next for Cotton
The divergence between rising speculative bets and lagging export sales suggests the market is searching for direction. Traders will watch upcoming USDA reports for any revisions to supply and demand estimates.
Weather conditions in key growing regions and shifts in the dollar’s value will also influence price action in the weeks ahead.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have positions in any of the securities mentioned. This article is for informational purposes only. For more information, view the Barchart Disclosure Policy.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our editorial team for accuracy and quality.
