Galaxy Research has revised its estimate of the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law, dropping the probability from 75% to 60% in a note published this week. The shift reflects growing concerns over political headwinds in a divided Congress, according to the firm’s research team.
The CLARITY Act, formally the Clarity for Digital Assets Act, is a bipartisan bill aimed at establishing a federal regulatory framework for digital assets and stablecoins. It has been a focal point for the crypto industry, which has long sought clearer rules from Washington.
Also read: HTX Suspends WLFI and USD1 Trading After Token Freeze Sparks Control Debate
Why the odds were cut
Galaxy Research cited two primary factors for the 15-percentage-point reduction. First, the upcoming congressional calendar is crowded with must-pass spending bills and a potential debt ceiling fight, leaving limited floor time for standalone crypto legislation. Second, key lawmakers remain divided on stablecoin oversight provisions, particularly around state versus federal regulatory authority.
“We still see a path to passage, but the timeline has become tighter and the political obstacles more pronounced,” the research note stated, according to a summary shared with clients.
Also read: Wormhole Gets a Second Chance as RLUSD Goes Multichain
The revised estimate does not mean the bill is dead, the firm emphasized. Rather, it reflects a more realistic assessment of the legislative process. The 60% figure still suggests passage is more likely than not, but the margin for error has narrowed.
Market and industry implications
The CLARITY Act is widely seen as a bellwether for U.S. crypto policy. If enacted, it would preempt a patchwork of state-level regulations and give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) primary oversight of digital asset spot markets. Stablecoin issuers would face federal reserve and disclosure requirements.
Industry groups, including the Blockchain Association and the Crypto Council for Innovation, have lobbied heavily for the bill. A delay or failure could push more crypto firms to operate overseas, a concern the Treasury Department has also flagged.
Galaxy Research’s downgrade comes as other analysts monitor similar signals. The odds of any major crypto legislation passing before the 2024 election remain a topic of active debate among policy watchers.
The firm said it would continue to update its probability estimate as the legislative calendar evolves and as amendments to the bill are proposed.
