Soybean futures reversed course on Friday, closing 10 to 17 ¼ cents higher across most contracts, as traders positioned ahead of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report scheduled for Tuesday. The recovery erased some of the week’s earlier losses, with July soybeans finishing up 4 ¾ cents on the week and November contracts adding 6 ¾ cents.
Cash Market and Key Contract Movements
The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price rose 15 ¾ cents to $11.40 ½ per bushel. Among the active contracts, May 26 soybeans settled at $11.94 ¼, up 17 ¼ cents, while July 26 closed at $12.08, up 15 ¾ cents. New crop November 26 soybeans finished at $11.89 ½, up 16 cents. Soymeal futures also gained, rising 80 cents to $2.50 per ton, with July up 40 cents on the week. Soy oil futures posted gains of 17 to 45 points on the day, though July slipped 84 points for the week.
Also read: Cotton Futures Rally on Friday as Managed Money Boosts Net Long Positions
Managed Money Positions Signal Bullish Sentiment
Commitment of Traders data released Friday showed that managed money increased its net long position in soybean futures and options by 36,335 contracts as of May 5, bringing the total to 221,617 contracts. In soybean oil, speculators extended their record net long position by 3,417 contracts to 169,142 contracts. These positioning shifts suggest that institutional traders are betting on further price support, likely tied to tightening supply expectations and upcoming USDA data.
Export Sales Trail Year-Ago Pace
Thursday’s weekly Export Sales report revealed that total soybean sale commitments reached 38.92 million metric tons (MMT), down 18% from the same period last year. That figure represents 93% of the USDA’s full-year projection, lagging the five-year average pace of 98%. Shipments stand at 33.24 MMT, 23% below last year and 79% of the USDA forecast, compared with the average 88% pace. The slower export pace reflects ongoing competition from South American supplies and global demand uncertainty.
Also read: Dollar Drops to 2.5-Month Low as Markets Bet on US-Iran Peace Deal
WASDE Report in Focus
All eyes are now on Tuesday’s WASDE report. According to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, old-crop US soybean stocks are expected at 349 million bushels (mbu), nearly unchanged from the April estimate of 350 mbu. For new crop, traders are looking for September 1, 2027 stocks of 366 mbu, with estimates ranging from 308 to 479 mbu. The wide range underscores the uncertainty around planting progress, weather conditions, and export demand. A bullish surprise in the stocks data could provide additional upward momentum for prices.
Why This Matters for Traders and Farmers
The recovery on Friday, combined with rising managed money net longs, suggests that market participants are pricing in tighter supplies and potential weather risks ahead of the growing season. However, the lagging export sales data serves as a counterweight, reminding traders that global demand remains soft. The WASDE report will be the next major catalyst, potentially setting the tone for soybean prices through late spring. For farmers, the current price levels near $12 per bushel on July futures offer a modest improvement from earlier lows, but the export headwinds and ample global stocks may limit upside without a significant supply shock.
FAQs
Q1: What is the WASDE report and why does it matter for soybean prices?
The WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report is a monthly USDA publication that provides supply and demand forecasts for major crops, including soybeans. It influences market expectations for ending stocks, production, and exports, and can trigger significant price moves.
Q2: Why did managed money increase its net long position in soybeans?
Managed money (hedge funds and commodity trading advisors) likely increased longs due to expectations of tighter supplies, potential weather disruptions, and positioning ahead of the WASDE report. The move signals bullish sentiment among institutional traders.
Q3: How do export sales affect soybean futures prices?
Export sales data reflects actual purchase commitments from foreign buyers. Strong sales support prices by indicating solid demand, while weak sales — like the current 18% year-over-year decline — can pressure prices by suggesting oversupply or competition from other exporters like Brazil.
