Soybean futures posted solid gains on Friday, with contracts closing 10 to 17 ¼ cents higher as the market recovered from mid-week weakness. July soybeans settled at $12.08, up 15 ¾ cents, while the November contract rose 16 cents to $11.89 ½. The national cash bean price increased 15 ¾ cents to $11.40 ½, according to cmdtyView data.
Weekly Performance and Fund Positioning
For the week, July soybeans gained 4 ¾ cents, and November added 6 ¾ cents. Soymeal futures rose $2.50 on Friday, with July up 40 cents on the week. Soy oil futures gained 17 to 45 points on the day, though July slipped 84 points for the week.
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Commitment of Traders data as of May 5 showed managed money increasing their net long position in soybean futures and options by 36,335 contracts, bringing it to 221,617 contracts. Speculators in soybean oil futures and options extended their record net long position by 3,417 contracts to 169,142 contracts, signaling continued bullish sentiment in the broader soy complex.
Export Sales and WASDE Expectations
Thursday’s Export Sales report showed soybean sale commitments at 38.92 million metric tons, down 18% from last year. That represents 93% of the USDA’s full-year projection, lagging the five-year average pace of 98%. Shipments reached 33.24 MMT, 23% below last year and 79% of the USDA estimate, versus the 88% average pace.
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All eyes now turn to Tuesday’s WASDE report. A Bloomberg survey of analysts estimates old-crop US soybean stocks at 349 million bushels, nearly unchanged from April’s 350 million bushels. For new crop, traders expect stocks of 366 million bushels as of September 1, 2027, with estimates ranging from 308 to 479 million bushels. The report will also provide the first official look at 2026/27 supply and demand balances.
Why This Matters for Farmers and Traders
The combination of recovering prices, strong fund positioning, and upcoming supply-demand data creates a major moment for soybean markets. With export demand trailing year-ago levels and new-crop uncertainty ahead, Tuesday’s WASDE release will be critical in shaping price expectations through the growing season. Farmers are watching closely for any adjustments to yield or acreage estimates that could tighten or loosen the supply outlook.
Conclusion
Soybeans ended the week on a positive note as managed money extended bullish bets and the market awaited fresh fundamental data. The May WASDE report on Tuesday will provide the next major catalyst, with old-crop stocks expected to remain tight and new-crop carryout estimates offering clues on price direction into the fall harvest.
FAQs
Q1: What caused soybean prices to rise on Friday?
Prices recovered from mid-week weakness, supported by fund buying and positioning ahead of Tuesday’s WASDE report. Cash prices also firmed, reflecting steady demand.
Q2: What is the WASDE report and why does it matter?
The WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report is the USDA’s monthly forecast of global crop supply and demand. It influences price expectations for grains and oilseeds.
Q3: How are export sales performing compared to last year?
Soybean export commitments are down 18% from last year, and shipments are 23% lower. The pace of sales and shipments trails the five-year average, which could pressure prices if demand does not pick up.
