Lean hog futures finished July with modest gains on Thursday, even as export demand showed signs of cooling. According to Nasdaq, the August 2025 contract added 10 cents to settle at $107.125, the October contract rose 37.5 cents to $89.575, and the December contract gained 52.5 cents to $81.725.
The mixed signals extended beyond the futures board. The USDA’s national base hog price dropped $1.67 from the prior day to $111.67 on Thursday afternoon, while the CME Lean Hog Index edged up 10 cents to $110.51 on July 29.
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Key facts
- August 2025 lean hog futures closed at $107.125, up 10 cents; October settled at $89.575, up 37.5 cents; December ended at $81.725, up 52.5 cents.
- Pork export sales for the week ending July 24 totaled 17,003 metric tons, a six-week low, with shipments at 27,573 metric tons.
- The USDA pork cutout value fell $2 to $114.00 per hundredweight, led by a $10.83 drop in the belly primal.
- Estimated hog slaughter for Thursday was 479,000 head, bringing the week-to-date total to 1.859 million head.
Export demand softens amid price pressure
The latest export figures from the USDA paint a picture of fading international appetite for U.S. pork. Sales of 17,003 metric tons for the week ending July 24 marked the smallest weekly total in six weeks, though shipments managed to climb back to 27,573 metric tons after a softer prior week.
On the domestic side, the pork cutout—a measure of wholesale value across primal cuts—slipped $2 to $114.00 per hundredweight. The ham was the lone primal to post a gain, while the belly led the decline with a $10.83 drop, underscoring uneven demand across cuts.
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Slaughter numbers and supply outlook
Hog slaughter for Thursday was estimated at 479,000 head, with the week-to-date total reaching 1.859 million head following a revised Wednesday figure that was 8,000 head lower. That weekly total trails last week by 2,000 head and sits 45,418 head below the same week a year earlier, pointing to a tightening supply picture that could support prices in the coming months.
Why it matters
The divergence between firming futures and weak spot fundamentals highlights the uncertainty facing U.S. hog producers. A six-week low in export sales and a falling cutout value suggest near-term demand is not keeping pace with supply, even as slaughter totals run below year-ago levels. For farmers and traders, the data signals that any price recovery may hinge on a rebound in export activity or a further contraction in herd sizes.
What to watch
Market participants will look to next week’s USDA export sales report for signs of a demand rebound, while the agency’s daily slaughter estimates will offer clues on whether supply is tightening further. The next CME Lean Hog Index update could also shift sentiment if it diverges from the recent trend.
The article was based on reporting by Austin Schroeder for Barchart. Disclosure: The author held no positions in the securities mentioned.
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