Wheat futures opened Friday’s session modestly lower after a broad rally on Thursday, according to Barchart data reported by Nasdaq. Chicago soft red winter contracts settled Thursday with gains of 5 3/4 to 12 1/2 cents, September CBOT wheat closed at $7.23 1/4 and December at $7.41 1/4, while Kansas City hard red winter futures rose 10 1/4 to 12 3/4 cents and Minneapolis spring wheat added 12 1/2 to 15 3/4 cents.
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Key facts
- September CBOT wheat settled Thursday at $7.23 1/4, up 12 cents, while December CBOT closed at $7.41 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents.
- September KCBT wheat closed at $8.04 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents, and December KCBT ended at $8.18 3/4, also up 12 1/2 cents.
- Minneapolis spring wheat gained 12 1/2 to 15 3/4 cents, with September at $7.43 3/4 and December at $7.63 1/2.
- Export sales data was delayed to Friday because of Monday’s holiday, with traders surveyed by Reuters expecting 250,000 to 500,000 metric tons for the week ending Sept. 3.
- A Bloomberg survey sees the average U.S. wheat production guess at 718 million bushels, just 1 mbu above August, while world stocks are seen down 0.3 MMT at 273 MMT.
Rally fades in early Friday trade
The overnight session brought just one delivery notice against September CBT wheat, with open interest down 4,789 contracts. KC wheat recorded 27 delivery notices against the September contract, and open interest there slipped 2,581 contracts. By early Friday, December CBOT wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, December KCBT was off 5 1/2 cents, and December Minneapolis had eased 1 1/4 cents, while the nearby September contracts in Chicago and Kansas City held steady.
USDA report and delayed export sales in focus
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to leave its production estimates unchanged in this month’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report while it waits for the Small Grains Summary on Sept. 30. That leaves the rest of the balance sheet open for revisions, and traders expect few changes overall.
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Weekly export sales, normally published on Thursdays, were pushed to Friday after Monday’s market holiday. Surveyed traders are looking for 250,000 to 500,000 metric tons for the week ended Sept. 3.
Why it matters
Wheat prices feed directly into flour, bread, and animal feed costs, so a one-day rally in Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis can show up in food-price discussions weeks later. The delivery notices and lower open interest suggest Thursday’s move was driven more by short-covering and position adjustments than by a shift in demand. With USDA production estimates expected to hold steady, the market’s attention is likely to stay on exports and world stock levels rather than on U.S. supply.
What to watch
The Friday export sales figure for the week ended Sept. 3 is the next hard data point, followed by the September WASDE report and the Small Grains Summary on Sept. 30, which will give the market its updated read on U.S. production.
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