Poland’s economy is on track to post 3.8% year-on-year growth in the second quarter of 2026, according to ING economist Adam Antoniak, who expects the flash GDP estimate to be confirmed when final data lands. The growth figure, released by Poland’s statistics office GUS on August 14, was buoyed by a sharp rebound in fixed investment, which has been energized by a wave of European Union and Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF)-funded infrastructure projects.
The confirmation would mark the third consecutive quarter of accelerating growth for Central Europe’s largest economy, following a 3.2% expansion in the first quarter. But beneath the headline number, ING sees a subtle shift in the composition of growth: investment is taking over from consumption as the primary engine.
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Investment rebounds on EU and RRF inflows
Fixed investment has been the standout performer in the second quarter, with ING attributing the strength to the accelerated rollout of projects co-financed by the EU’s cohesion policy and the post-pandemic Recovery and Resilience Facility. Poland, the largest beneficiary of EU funds in the bloc, has been drawing down billions of euros earmarked for energy transition, transport, and digital infrastructure.
Antoniak noted that the investment rebound is broad-based, spanning both public and private sectors. Public investment has been boosted by local governments tapping into EU grants, while private firms have increased capital spending in manufacturing and logistics, partly in response to nearshoring trends that have made Poland an attractive hub for European supply chains.
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The recovery in investment is a welcome development for an economy that has historically struggled to translate EU inflows into sustained capital formation. In the aftermath of the 2020 pandemic, Poland’s investment-to-GDP ratio dipped below 17%, among the lowest in the EU. The current rebound suggests that the absorption of RRF funds — which Poland has accessed after a lengthy dispute with Brussels over rule-of-law issues — is finally feeding through to real economic activity.
Consumption cools as fuel prices and wages bite
While investment is accelerating, private consumption is losing some momentum. ING expects household spending to grow at a slower pace in the second quarter, reflecting two headwinds: higher fuel prices and weaker nominal wage growth.
Global oil prices have climbed through the summer, pushing domestic fuel costs higher and squeezing real incomes. At the same time, wage growth in Poland has moderated from the double-digit rates seen in 2024 and 2025, as the labor market cools and the post-pandemic catch-up in salaries fades. In June, average gross wages in the enterprise sector rose 7.1% year-on-year, down from a peak of over 12% in early 2025.
The combination of higher fuel costs and softer pay gains has trimmed households’ purchasing power, even as the labor market remains relatively tight. Retail sales data for June showed a modest 2.4% year-on-year increase, below market expectations, suggesting consumers are becoming more cautious.
Still, ING’s Antoniak believes the slowdown in consumption is a normalization rather than a collapse. Household balance sheets remain supported by a strong labor market and rising real wages, and the central bank’s gradual easing cycle has kept borrowing costs on a downward path.
What the data means for the rest of 2026
The second-quarter figures are likely to feed into a more optimistic outlook for the full year. ING projects Poland’s GDP to expand by around 3.6% in 2026, a pace that would outpace most of its regional peers and the euro area average.
However, risks remain. The continued flow of EU funds is contingent on meeting milestones under Poland’s national recovery plan, and any delays in disbursement could dampen the investment outlook. Additionally, external demand from Germany — Poland’s largest trading partner — remains subdued, which could weigh on net exports in the second half of the year.
For now, the market’s focus is on the final GDP breakdown, due in September, which will provide a more detailed picture of the contributions from investment, consumption, and net trade. The data will also be closely watched by the National Bank of Poland, which has been balancing the need to support growth against concerns over inflation, which has remained stubbornly above the central bank’s 2.5% target.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Economic forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and market conditions can change rapidly. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
