Corn futures maintained their upward momentum on Tuesday, with contracts rising 3 to 4 cents despite a USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report that leaned bearish. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price increased 3 3/4 cents to $4.38 3/4, as traders weighed higher U.S. ending stocks against strong planting progress and global supply adjustments.
USDA May WASDE Report Details
The May WASDE report, released Tuesday morning, projected U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year at 2.142 billion bushels (bbu), a 15 million bushel (mbu) increase from the April estimate. The revision was driven by a 15 mbu reduction in ethanol use, reflecting slightly slower-than-expected demand from the renewable fuels sector.
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The USDA also released its first balance sheet for the 2026/27 marketing year, projecting ending stocks at 1.957 bbu, slightly above the average trade estimate. The 2026 U.S. corn production was forecast at 15.995 billion bushels, with an average yield of 183 bushels per acre (bpa).
Global Supply and Export Competition
On the global front, the USDA raised its estimate for Brazil’s corn production by 3 million metric tons (MMT) to 135 MMT, while Argentina’s crop was increased by 7 MMT to 59 MMT. These upward revisions point to strong global supply, which could weigh on U.S. export competitiveness in the coming months.
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World ending stocks for old crop corn were raised 2.14 MMT to 296.95 MMT, while new crop carryout was pegged at 277.54 MMT. The higher global stocks figure adds a bearish undertone, though market participants noted that the increases were largely anticipated.
Planting Progress and Crop Conditions
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported that 57% of the U.S. corn crop was planted as of Sunday, 5 percentage points ahead of the five-year average of 52%. Emergence reached 23%, also ahead of the normal pace of 19%.
Faster-than-normal planting progress is generally supportive for yield potential, as it allows the crop to develop before the peak summer heat. However, traders are closely watching weather patterns in the Midwest for any signs of stress during the critical pollination phase.
Price Action and Market Outlook
Nearby July 26 corn futures settled at $4.78 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents. September 26 corn was at $4.85 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents, and December 26 corn closed at $5.01, up 3 1/4 cents. New crop cash prices were quoted at $4.54 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents.
The market’s ability to hold gains despite the bearish WASDE data suggests that traders are focusing on the strong demand outlook and the potential for weather-related disruptions later in the growing season. Additionally, the higher global production numbers may already be priced into the market, leaving room for bullish surprises if U.S. yields fall short of the USDA’s initial estimate.
Conclusion
Corn futures are showing resilience in the face of a USDA report that increased both domestic and global supply projections. With planting ahead of schedule and strong cash prices, the market appears to be pricing in a balanced outlook for the 2026/27 season. However, traders will remain vigilant as weather and export demand evolve over the coming months.
FAQs
Q1: Why did corn prices rise despite a bearish USDA report?
Market participants had largely anticipated the increases in ending stocks and global production, so the report did not contain major surprises. Additionally, strong planting progress and resilient cash prices provided support.
Q2: How does faster planting progress affect corn prices?
Faster planting generally supports yield potential and can be bullish for supply expectations. However, it also means the crop is more vulnerable to weather events later in the season if conditions turn unfavorable.
Q3: What are the key factors to watch for corn prices in the coming months?
Key factors include weather conditions during pollination, export demand, ethanol production trends, and any revisions to global supply estimates from major producers like Brazil and Argentina.
