Soybean futures closed lower on Wednesday, with contracts falling 10 to 16 ¾ cents, pressured by a sharp decline in crude oil prices that rippled across commodity markets. The cmdtyView national average cash bean price settled at $11.27 ½, down 16 ½ cents on the session.
Crude Oil Drop Weighs on Soy Complex
The selloff in soybeans coincided with a $6.06 drop in crude oil after reports that the United States and Iran are nearing a memorandum of understanding. The potential agreement would include provisions for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and a path toward ending the ongoing conflict. Lower crude oil prices reduce the competitiveness of biofuels, including soybean-based biodiesel, which directly pressures soy oil values. Soy oil futures fell 139 to 189 points at Wednesday’s close, while soymeal futures declined 30 cents to $3.10 in the front months.
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Export Sales Data on Deck
Traders are now turning their attention to Thursday morning’s export sales report from the USDA. Analysts expect 2025/26 soybean sales for the last week of April to range between 200,000 and 500,000 metric tons. New crop soybean sales are estimated between 0 and 100,000 MT. For soymeal, sales are forecast between 150,000 and 450,000 MT, while soy oil bookings are expected to range from net reductions of 12,000 MT to net sales of 20,000 MT.
Brazil Acreage and Global Supply Outlook
Argus Media estimates that 2026/27 Brazilian soybean acreage will grow only marginally from the prior year, citing higher production costs and the risk of El Niño weather patterns. In Canada, Statistics Canada reported canola stocks at the end of March at 9.985 million metric tons, a 27.4% increase year-over-year. Meanwhile, Canadian soybean stocks fell 45.7% from last year to 1.497 MMT.
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Contract Settlement Prices
May 26 Soybeans closed at $11.79, down 16 ¾ cents. Nearby Cash settled at $11.27 ½, down 16 ½ cents. Jul 26 Soybeans closed at $11.94 ¾, down 16 ¾ cents. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $11.75 ½, down 14 cents. New Crop Cash was $11.14 ½, down 14 cents.
Conclusion
Wednesday’s selloff in soybeans reflects the broader influence of energy markets on agricultural commodities, as geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to drive volatility. With export sales data due Thursday and shifting acreage estimates in South America, traders are positioning cautiously. The decline in soy oil, in particular, highlights the interconnected nature of biofuel feedstocks and crude oil prices, a dynamic that will remain in focus as the US-Iran talks evolve.
FAQs
Q1: Why did soybeans fall on Wednesday?
Soybean futures declined primarily due to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, which fell over $6 after reports of progress in US-Iran talks. Lower crude oil reduces the competitiveness of biofuels, including soybean-based biodiesel, weighing on soy oil and the broader soy complex.
Q2: What are the key export sales estimates for soybeans?
For the week ending April 30, 2025/26 soybean sales are expected between 200,000 and 500,000 metric tons. New crop sales are estimated at 0 to 100,000 MT. The USDA will release the official data on Thursday morning.
Q3: How did Brazilian acreage estimates affect the market?
Argus estimates that 2026/27 Brazilian soybean acreage will increase only marginally due to higher production costs and El Niño risks. While not a major price driver on Wednesday, the data reinforces expectations of a slower expansion in global supply.
