Corn futures saw modest gains during midday trading on Wednesday, supported by fresh data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicating a significant uptick in ethanol production. July 2026 corn futures rose 1.75 cents to $4.81 3/4 per bushel, while the national cash corn price increased by 2 cents to $4.41, according to Barchart data.
Ethanol Production Data Boosts Sentiment
The weekly EIA report, released Wednesday morning, showed ethanol output rising by 65,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the week ending May 8, reaching a total of 1.082 million bpd. This increase signals stronger demand for corn, the primary feedstock for U.S. ethanol. Ethanol stocks also tightened, drawing down by 1.15 million barrels to 24.87 million barrels, which further supported prices.
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Exports of ethanol rose by 23,000 bpd to 162,000 bpd, while refiner inputs edged up by 6,000 bpd to 908,000 bpd. These figures suggest that both domestic and international demand for ethanol remain sturdy, providing a tailwind for corn markets.
WASDE Report and Global Supply Outlook
Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report also influenced trading. The report increased the U.S. corn ending stocks projection by 15 million bushels (mbu) to 2.142 billion bushels (bbu), reflecting slightly higher supply expectations. However, the first 2026/27 marketing year balance sheet projected ending stocks at 1.957 bbu, suggesting a potential tightening in the coming season.
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On the global stage, the USDA raised its production estimates for Brazil by 3 million metric tons (MMT) to 135 MMT, and for Argentina by 7 MMT to 59 MMT. These revisions reflect improved crop conditions in South America, which could increase global corn supplies and temper price gains.
Export Sales Data on Deck
Traders are now looking ahead to Thursday’s weekly Export Sales report from the USDA. Analysts expect old crop corn sales for the week ending May 7 to range between 1.0 and 1.9 million metric tons (MMT). New crop sales are forecasted at zero to 300,000 MT. Strong export numbers could provide additional support for futures prices.
Why This Matters for the Market
The combination of rising ethanol production, tightening ethanol stocks, and strong export expectations creates a constructive near-term outlook for corn prices. However, larger global supplies from South America and higher U.S. ending stocks may limit upside potential. For farmers and traders, the weekly EIA and USDA reports remain critical indicators for gauging demand and supply dynamics.
Conclusion
Corn futures posted modest gains on Wednesday, driven by improved ethanol production data and a draw in ethanol stocks. While the WASDE report showed higher global supplies, the market is closely watching upcoming export sales figures for further direction. The overall tone remains cautiously optimistic, supported by solid industrial demand for corn.
FAQs
Q1: What is the main reason for the corn price increase on Wednesday?
A: The primary driver was the weekly EIA report showing a 65,000 bpd increase in ethanol production, which signals higher demand for corn as a feedstock.
Q2: How did the WASDE report affect corn futures?
A: The WASDE report raised U.S. ending stocks by 15 mbu, but also introduced a tighter 2026/27 balance sheet. Global production increases for Brazil and Argentina added bearish pressure, but the market focused on ethanol demand.
Q3: What should traders watch next for corn prices?
A: Traders are awaiting Thursday’s Export Sales report, with expectations for old crop sales between 1.0 and 1.9 MMT. Strong export data could further support prices.
