Soybeans Sink 15-17 Cents as US-China Trade Meeting Ends Quiet

Soybean futures retreated 15 to 17 cents on Friday, September 25, 2026, after a closely watched US-China meeting ended with no trade-related announcements, Nasdaq reported. The prior session had been nearly flat, with most contracts slipping fractionally to 4 cents as traders waited for news that never arrived.

The lack of a headline out of the talks weighed on sentiment, particularly because Treasury Secretary Bessent had said earlier in the week that the two countries were extending their trade truce by two months. As Nasdaq put it, no news is not always good news.

Also read: Soybeans Gain 10–11 Cents as Meal Rally Offsets Weak NOPA Crush

Key facts

• November 2026 soybeans closed Thursday at $13.17 1/2, down 1/2 cent, and were down 16 3/4 cents at last check on Friday.
• USDA weekly export sales for the week of September 17 totaled 582,432 MT, a 12-week low and 19.6% below the same week a year earlier, versus analyst estimates of 1.5 to 2 MMT.
• China bought 311,800 MT of that total, with Japan taking 66,000 MT and the Netherlands 59,700 MT.
• USDA also reported a private export sale of 120,000 MT of soybeans to China on Thursday morning for the 2026/27 marketing year.
• The cmdtyView national average cash bean price was up 1/4 cent at $12.59.

Export sales miss estimates by a wide margin

The weekly sales figure was the headline disappointment. At 582,432 MT, total sales came in well below the 1.5 to 2 MMT analysts had expected, and the 19.6% year-over-year decline marked the weakest weekly total in 12 weeks. China’s 311,800 MT purchase accounted for the bulk of the business, but it was not enough to offset the shortfall against expectations.

Product sales were similarly soft. Bean meal sales totaled 60,667 MT for the current marketing year, with 2026/27 sales at 245,984 MT, against an estimated range of 250,000 to 375,000 MT. Bean oil sales reached 1,631 MT for 2025/26 and 86 MT for 2026/27, compared with estimates of a 2,000 MT net reduction and 6,500 MT in net sales, respectively.

Also read: Asian Tech Shares Rise on US-China Talks as Brent Falls to $101.8

On the board, the November 2026 contract had closed Thursday at $13.17 1/2, down 1/2 cent, while January 2027 settled at $13.32, down 1 3/4 cents, and March 2027 at $13.39 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents. By Friday’s reading the three contracts were down 16 3/4, 17 and 16 1/2 cents respectively. Nearby cash stood at $12.59, up 1/4 cent.

Soymeal futures were 30 cents to $5.80 higher, led by the October contract, while soyoil dropped 8 to 32 points. Open interest rose 4,706 contracts. A slower start to harvest in some areas has tightened supplies available to crushers and trimmed meal availability, according to Nasdaq.

Why it matters

China is the single largest buyer of US soybeans, so any signal from Washington-Beijing talks moves the futures curve quickly, and this week the signal was silence. The two-month truce extension buys time but does not resolve the underlying trade dispute, leaving exporters and crushers to plan around a short window instead of a durable agreement.

The gap between analyst expectations and actual sales matters beyond one week’s data. It suggests buyers are holding back until the trade picture clears, which pressures basis levels for farmers bringing in the new crop and squeezes margins for processors who depend on consistent bean flow.

What to watch

The next USDA weekly export sales report and any formal readout from the US-China talks will be the immediate catalysts. Traders will also watch whether the two-month truce extension produces follow-through purchases from China or further quiet. None of this is financial advice, and commodity markets are volatile and uncertain.

Written by

Benjamin

Benjamin Carter covers business, finance, and the stock market for StockPil, focusing on the trends and data that matter to everyday investors.

Source: Nasdaq