ASIC Says No Prediction Market Firm Has Applied for a License
ASIC says it is not convinced retail prediction markets serve the public interest, and its chair told a hearing no operator has applied for a license.
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Australia’s securities regulator has not moved to ban prediction markets outright, but it has made clear it sees little public benefit in letting retail clients trade them. In a statement reported by Finance Magnates, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said it is not currently convinced that offering such contracts to retail clients is in the public interest. According to Finance Magnates, the notice reflects ASIC’s present position rather than a formal prohibition.
The regulator’s view sharpened at a parliamentary hearing on October 29, 2026, when ASIC Chair Sarah Court said no prediction market operator had submitted an application to run services in Australia, Crypto Briefing reported. That absence of applicants is notable because ASIC must weigh whether granting a market licence would serve the public interest under section 798A of the Corporations Act 2001.
Also read: Polymarket Halts Trading After Vendor Breach Drains $2.65M
Key facts
- ASIC said prediction market contracts have all the features of a bet and are highly speculative, with all-or-nothing outcomes tied to particular events.
- Binary options have been banned for Australian retail clients since May 2021, and the ban was later extended to run until October 1, 2031.
- ASIC Chair Sarah Court told a parliamentary hearing on October 29, 2026 that the regulator has received no application from a prediction market operator, per Crypto Briefing.
- ASIC’s leverage limits for retail clients run until May 23, 2027.
- The Australian Communications and Media Authority blocked Polymarket in 2025 as illegal online gambling under the Interactive Gambling Act, Crypto Briefing reported.
How ASIC frames the product
ASIC’s objection is structural. It notes that many underlying events have nothing to do with investing, citing examples such as whether it will rain tomorrow or whether a sporting team will win and by how many goals. Those features, the regulator said, raise questions about whether prediction market contracts should be described as investment products at all.
ASIC also flagged market integrity risks, including misuse of confidential information, market manipulation and disputes over how outcomes are settled. It told Australians using offshore platforms that they have no protections under Australian law, and warned locally licensed financial services firms that their licence obligations still cover any activity that facilitates access to those offshore markets.
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Binary options as the template
The regulator’s frame of reference is binary options, which it banned for retail clients in 2021. Finance Magnates reported that in the 13 months before the ban, 74% to 77% of active retail clients lost money, with aggregate net losses of A$14 million. Crypto Briefing gives a different breakdown of the same episode: it reported that total losses reached A$15.7 million against A$1.7 million in gains, and that 74-77% of active retail clients lost money.
The two products differ in delivery. Prediction market contracts are generally offered through a market platform, while binary options are sold over the counter by brokers. ASIC described the payoff structure as the shared trait, and Crypto Briefing reported that any future prediction market application would be assessed in a similar way to binary options.
The regulator’s concerns have been building. Crypto Briefing reported that in August 2026 ASIC published consumer guidance through its Moneysmart service, warning Australians to avoid unlicensed prediction market platforms and describing them as akin to gambling. Crypto Briefing also reported that Commissioner Alan Kirkland has warned users could lose everything they put in, and has pointed to trading that favours better-informed participants.
Offshore access has continued regardless. Crypto Briefing reported that Polymarket and Kalshi have listed markets on events including political outcomes, and that Australians can still reach offshore sites through VPNs used to mask their location.
Why it matters
Australia has not closed the door by statute, but the licensing route runs through a regulator that treats the product as a cousin of a banned one. For any operator weighing an Australian entry, that means addressing the all-or-nothing payoff head on rather than relying on a different label. For retail users, the practical exposure is unchanged: offshore participation carries no local regulatory backstop, and a dispute or a total loss of capital would have no Australian recourse. The stance also aligns Australia with regulators in parts of Europe and the UK that have restricted event contracts resembling binary options, as Finance Magnates noted.
What to watch
The first marker is whether any operator actually lodges a licence application with ASIC, and how the regulator measures it against the binary options precedent. Crypto Briefing also flagged whether the Australian Communications and Media Authority extends its blocking beyond Polymarket to other offshore platforms, and whether the binary options ban, set to run until October 1, 2031, becomes the template for event-based contracts in Australia.
Sources: Finance Magnates, Crypto Briefing
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