Fox Business host Larry Kudlow made the case on his show that President Donald Trump and the Republican Party have a strong election message for the midterms, but only if they actively campaign on it. Kudlow pointed to recent primary results where polls were significantly wrong, suggesting that the mainstream narrative of Trump’s unpopularity may be overstated.
Kudlow cited the Michigan primary, where Abdul El-Sayed was predicted to win by over 20 points but barely won, and Wisconsin’s Francesca Hong, who was also expected to win by a wide margin but lost by a narrow one. These examples, he argued, show that pollsters often fail to capture the true electorate.
Also read: Swig’s dirty soda boom accelerates beyond Utah as investor sees ‘Starbucksification’ of soft drinks
The Polling Problem and Likely Voters
Kudlow contended that many polls survey adults or registered voters rather than likely voters, and often ask loaded questions. He highlighted the work of pollster John McLaughlin, whose likely voter surveys show support for Trump’s approach on Iran and a preference for free-market capitalism over socialism. According to Kudlow, these polls better reflect the mood of the people who will actually cast ballots.
Economic Messaging: Manufacturing, Jobs, and Inflation
Kudlow argued that the economy is performing better than mainstream media reports suggest. He cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s data on 105,000 hard goods producing jobs added this year and 93,400 factory construction jobs since Trump took office. Manufacturing wages have increased by nearly 5 percent, twice the inflation rate, according to financial journalist John Carney.
Also read: Sonic Fire Tech raises $15M to fight fires with sound, not water or chemicals
Kudlow also pointed to a reduction of almost 400,000 federal jobs and the creation of nearly 900,000 private sector jobs, framing this as a shift away from what he called “Biden’s big-government socialism.” On inflation, he noted that under President Biden, the CPI rose 21.4 percent cumulatively over four years. However, under Trump’s new Federal Reserve chief, Kevin Warsh, inflation has dropped to near zero in recent months, with a six-month annualized rate of 2.4 percent—close to the Fed’s target.
Prescription Drug Prices and Middle-Class Tax Reform
Kudlow also highlighted a 3.4 percent decline in prescription drug prices over the past year, with no monthly increases during Trump’s second term. He suggested that these economic wins could be bolstered by middle-class tax reform as part of the midterm package.
Kudlow contrasted the GOP’s message with Democratic proposals like Medicare for All, tax increases, open borders, and defunding the police and ICE. He argued that these positions are unpopular with likely voters and that the GOP should nationalize the election around these issues.
What This Means for the Midterms
Kudlow’s commentary reflects a broader Republican strategy to focus on economic messaging and portray Democrats as extreme. The midterms will test whether this approach resonates with voters. While early polls may show challenges for the GOP, Kudlow advises against paying too much attention to them, suggesting that the real electorate may have different priorities.
As the campaign season heats up, the effectiveness of this message will become clearer. Voters will ultimately decide whether the economic data and policy contrasts Kudlow highlights translate into electoral success.
Disclaimer: This article discusses political commentary and economic data. It does not constitute financial advice. Markets and political outcomes are inherently uncertain, and readers should consider multiple sources before forming conclusions.
