Cotton futures resumed their rally on Friday, August 17, 2026, with the front month closing 116 to 130 points higher at the bell. The December 2026 contract settled at 84.8 cents per pound, up 130 points on the session and 40 points higher for the week.
The move came as the US dollar index slipped 0.320 points, providing a natural tailwind for dollar-denominated commodities. Crude oil added $1.15 per barrel, further supporting the broader agricultural complex. October 2026 cotton closed at 83.6 cents, while March 2027 settled at 86.68 cents, up 126 points.
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Managed Money Positions Hit Multi-Year High
Friday’s strength was underpinned by fresh positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. According to the Commitment of Traders report for the week ending August 11, managed money added 10,591 contracts to their net long position in cotton futures and options.
That pushed the net long to 78,870 contracts — the largest reading in over two years. The sustained accumulation suggests institutional traders are increasingly confident in the demand outlook, even as the market has already priced in a substantial premium over the past several weeks.
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Export Data Points to Tight Supplies
Fundamental support continues to come from the export side. Accumulated 2025/26 export business stands at 11.977 million running bales, representing 107% of the USDA’s full-year export projection. Accumulated shipments reached 11.198 million running bales as the marketing year wraps up.
New crop business is also running ahead of schedule. Commitments for the upcoming season total 4.026 million running bales, a 25% increase compared to the same period last year. That pace suggests overseas buyers are locking in supply early, likely in response to concerns about global production shortfalls in other growing regions.
The Cotlook A Index, a key benchmark for world cotton prices, held steady at 94.95 cents on August 13. ICE certified cotton stocks declined by 1,779 bales on Wednesday, bringing the total to 75,985 bales — a level that continues to signal tight nearby availability.
The Adjusted World Price, which determines US loan deficiency payments and competitiveness, was raised by 190 points on Thursday to 68.19 cents per pound. The increase reflects the recent strength in global prices and narrows the gap between US and international cotton values.
What to Watch Next Week
Traders will be monitoring weekly export sales data due Thursday for confirmation that demand remains resilient at current price levels. The market is also keeping an eye on weather conditions across the US Southwest, where dry conditions have been a recurring concern for crop condition ratings throughout the summer.
With managed money already holding a two-year-high net long, some analysts caution that the market could be vulnerable to a sharp correction if any single data point disappoints. However, the combination of strong export demand, a weaker dollar, and firm energy prices has kept the bullish narrative intact heading into the final stretch of the growing season.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Commodity markets are volatile and involve substantial risk; prices can move quickly in either direction. Readers should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
