S&P 500 Rose After All 11 Midterms Since 1982, CNBC Finds

The S&P 500 has finished higher after every midterm election from 1982 through 2022, and averaged a 13.7% gain in the year that followed, according to CNBC, which analysed index returns across combined presidential and midterm elections from 1980 to 2024. Returns were positive in 91% of the cases the network examined, a record strategists have cited as voters went to the polls on November 3, 2026.

Short-term reactions were far less consistent, CNBC reported: the index rose an average of 0.2% after one day and one week, and 1.1% after one month. Presidential contests produced slightly negative average returns over the first day and first week.

Also read: Wholesale Prices Climb 6.3% Annually, Biggest Jump Since 2022

Key facts

• The S&P 500 gained an average 13.7% a year after midterms and 13.8% after presidential elections, per CNBC’s 1980-2024 analysis.
• Divided government produced a 15% average one-year gain in 15 elections, positive in 14, versus 11.5% under single-party control.
• A Democratic Congress with a Republican president yielded a 0.5% reaction-day decline, then 3.4% after a month and 10.9% after a year across the 1986, 1990 and 2006 midterms.
• Charles Schwab found the S&P 500 gained an average 12.4% in the six months after midterms from 1974 to 2022, CoinCentral reported, rising in all 13 periods studied.
• Kalshi put the odds of Democrats winning both the House and Senate at 73%, according to Axios as cited by CoinCentral.

Divided government has been the friendlier outcome

Ryan Detrick, a CNBC contributor and chief market strategist at Carson Group, traced the pattern to the release of pre-election tension, saying that once the vote is over markets tend to perform well. He also argued that a large wave in either direction is less welcome than a split result, attributing that to concentrated power and spending.

The data point that way. Three midterms that left Democrats holding both chambers and a Republican in the White House averaged a 0.5% decline on the reaction day before gains of 3.4% a month out and 10.9% a year out, CNBC calculated.

Also read: Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4% Days Before Midterms

CoinCentral, drawing on Coin Bureau, reported that in the seven midterms since 1954 that shifted which party controlled Congress, the index averaged gains of 2.1% after one month, 10.7% after three months, 17.5% after six months and 15.5% after a year, and was higher one year later in every case. CoinCentral noted the platform did not explain how it calculated the figures.

Two other data sets arrive with different framings. Charles Schwab’s study covered six months from 1974 to 2022 rather than CNBC’s one-year window from 1980, and Morgan Stanley’s research update on November 2 argued that the US stock market correction that began in June may be close to ending, with large-cap stocks averaging about 15% gains in the six months after midterms and a Democratic win already mostly priced in, per CoinCentral.

Why it matters

The historical record is a comfort to investors holding through election season, but both CNBC and CoinCentral stress that elections may be coincident with forces that matter far more for returns. CNBC noted the S&P 500 plunged 22.1% in the year after the 2000 elections because of the dotcom bust, the worst post-election result since 1980, while the 2020 election was followed by a 38.3% gain as markets recovered from the COVID selloff. It also pointed to 2018, when stocks fell after Democrats took the House as the Fed raised rates four times and the index ended the year down 6.2%.

The swing factor now is AI. Detrick said that as long as the AI wave continues and the economy keeps growing, the bull market is probably still alive, but a Democratic sweep of both chambers would pressure the AI infrastructure buildout. CoinCentral and Blockonomi both flagged higher Treasury yields, elevated energy prices, inflation questions and Iran tensions as live risks, and Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said in a note that worries around Iran, AI and France will not vanish on their own.

What to watch

Final tallies from the November 3 vote will determine whether Washington stays divided or swings to one party. After that, attention shifts to the Federal Reserve’s rate path, corporate earnings into 2027 and whether the AI-driven selloff in tech continues.

This is not financial advice. Market outcomes are uncertain and past performance does not guarantee future returns.

Written by

StockPil Editorial

The StockPil Editorial desk covers stock markets, business, finance, forex and crypto. Our AI-assisted newsroom builds each article from published, linked sources, checks it for accuracy before it goes live, and our editors review published articles and correct anything that needs it.

Sources: CNBC, CoinCentral, Blockonomi