American Airlines Sees Deeper 2026 Losses as Fuel Costs Bite

American Airlines expects a wider adjusted loss for 2026 than it forecast in July, and its finance chief says ticket prices are likely to hold near current levels even if jet fuel gets cheaper. The Fort Worth-based carrier now guides to an adjusted loss of $1 to $1.60 a share for the year, compared with July guidance ranging from a loss of 65 cents to a profit of 65 cents, Foxbusiness reported.

CFO Devon May told the Financial Times that fares probably stay largely where they are now if fuel prices decline, and that a rise in fuel would require higher yield and higher fares to offset it. Fuel costs have jumped across the industry since the start of the Iran war, and American is the fourth major U.S. carrier to cut its 2026 outlook, according to Cnbc. Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines also reduced their forecasts this month.

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Key facts

• American’s third-quarter fuel expense rose 67.5% from a year earlier. Foxbusiness put the added cost at $1.9 billion on an average price of $3.85 a gallon; Cnbc reported the quarterly fuel bill at $4.64 billion.
• Third-quarter revenue climbed 19.3% to $16.34 billion, which Cnbc reported as a record for the quarter. Foxbusiness described it as the highest in company history excluding the years after the pandemic.
• The carrier posted a third-quarter net loss of $269 million, or 41 cents a share, versus $114 million, or 17 cents a share, a year earlier. Adjusted, the loss was 28 cents a share.
• American expects an average fourth-quarter fuel price of about $4.70 a gallon, roughly double the year-earlier level, adding $2.8 billion in year-over-year fuel expense, per Foxbusiness.
• Fourth-quarter guidance is an adjusted loss of 50 cents to $1.10 a share, with revenue up as much as 22.5% and capacity up 5.5% to 6.5%, Cnbc reported.

Pricing has not caught up in real terms

May told the FT that fares had not fully recovered in real terms since the pandemic disrupted travel, and that the increases ideally would have arrived in 2024, when the industry was carrying too much capacity. He described this year as the first in which carriers managed to lift yields back to where they stood seven years ago in real terms.

Federal data cited by Foxbusiness showed airline fares up 22.4% from a year earlier in September, based on the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. Cnbc reported fare increases of more than 20% from last year, citing airline reports and federal data.

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CEO Robert Isom, in a news release cited by Cnbc, called it a record third-quarter revenue result and the strongest year-over-year revenue growth of his career, with premium performance leading. On the earnings call he said he has great confidence the airline returns to profitability next year.

Why it matters

The guidance cut lands on a carrier that has trailed profitable rivals Delta and United, and it shifts the pressure onto 2027. Elevated fuel costs leave American with less room to discount, which matters most to leisure travelers who are price-sensitive and to investors watching whether the premium-seat and lounge investments pay off. Because the airline plans to slow network growth next year relative to 2026, route and frequency additions will be more limited than previously planned.

What to watch

Investors will track fourth-quarter fuel prices against the roughly $4.70 a gallon the carrier assumes, and whether the forecast loss of 50 cents to $1.10 a share holds. American also said it is closing in on a wide-body order, with May telling Cnbc it has weighed the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, Airbus A330 and Airbus A350.

The airline has also been reshaping management, naming a new network chief earlier this month after bringing in commercial chief Nat Pieper last year, and deepening its partnership with Alaska Airlines, which is set to join its trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific joint businesses. This article is not financial advice, and markets can be volatile.

Written by

Benjamin

Benjamin Carter covers business, finance, and the stock market for StockPil, focusing on the trends and data that matter to everyday investors.

Sources: Fox Business, Cnbc