Indian stocks seen opening higher as crude eases, FII inflows swell

Indian equities were headed for a firm start on Monday, with GIFT Nifty Futures at 25,057.5 as of 8:06 a.m. IST, according to Mint. That reading implied a positive open for the Nifty 50, the report said, after the benchmark settled at 24,986.4 in a special Diwali session on Sunday.

BusinessLine described the domestic market as likely to open flat to positive amid mixed global cues, with participation expected to be light during the festive holiday period and the market closed on Tuesday. It put GIFT Nifty at 25,090, implying a gap-up opening of about 90 points for the Nifty.

Also read: Chipmakers and Bitcoin Lift Stocks as Crude Sinks 4%

Key facts

• GIFT Nifty stood at 25,057.5 as of 8:06 a.m. IST, per Mint; BusinessLine cited 25,090, or roughly a 90-point gap-up for the Nifty.
• The Nifty 50 closed at 24,986.4 on Sunday after the Sensex and Nifty dipped in the special Diwali session, consolidating a seven-session winning streak in which the benchmarks rose about 10.5%, Mint reported.
• Foreign investors bought more than $4.1 billion of Indian shares so far in November, their largest monthly inflows since September 2024, according to Mint.
• Brent crude futures fell nearly 1% to $97.5 a barrel, Mint reported; BusinessLine said WTI was hovering around $90 a barrel, down sharply from a breach of the $110 mark.
• Enrich Money CEO Ponmudi R, quoted by BusinessLine, said Thursday’s CPI data could provide the next significant directional cue.

Crude relief meets a crowded trade

The backdrop to Monday’s optimism is a sharp turn in two of the biggest drags on Indian equities this year: energy costs and the withdrawal of foreign money. Mint linked the seven-session rally of about 10.5% to strong foreign inflows on easing oil prices and the unwinding of the global AI trade, and said the advance was the longest winning streak this year.

The oil move follows comments from US President Donald Trump, who said fresh attacks on Iran were highly unlikely while talks to end the conflict progress, Mint reported. BusinessLine reported the same remarks but noted that Trump has kept military action on the table if talks fail, leaving geopolitical risk in place. Oil markets have stayed relatively stable despite those concerns, BusinessLine said.

Also read: Hormuz crude exports near pre-war levels as diesel lags

Ponmudi R told BusinessLine that after a sharp weekly advance and a subdued Muhurat trading session, the market faces a test of momentum, with investors weighing further gains against near-term profit-taking. Mint reported that potential profit booking after the recent gains could cap the rise.

Where analysts see the return coming from

Motilal Oswal Financial Services chairman and co-founder Raamdeo Agrawal, quoted by BusinessLine, argued that after two years of stagnation the market could deliver bumper returns to investors by next Diwali, citing a mix of low valuations and high earnings growth. He listed a potential crash in oil prices, a stable currency, returning foreign investors, a moderation of AI hype and broad-based earnings growth as supports for higher valuation multiples.

Bandhan Life’s senior vice president and head of equity Avinash Agarwal told BusinessLine that the outlook for the coming Samvat is constructive but with moderate and more selective returns, and that earnings growth rather than valuation expansion should drive performance. He expects large and midcaps to do well when foreign investors return, and named banking and financial services, healthcare, select industrials, infrastructure and some consumption-oriented businesses as sectors to watch, subject to valuations.

Why it matters

Foreign flows and crude are the two variables that have most shaped Indian equity performance recently, so their turn toward supportive levels changes the risk picture for domestic investors heading into a new Samvat year. The gap between the two reports on the GIFT Nifty reading is narrow and does not alter the direction of the signal, though the exact opening move will depend on live flows. BusinessLine’s account also noted lighter participation because of the holiday calendar.

What to watch

Thursday’s CPI release is the next scheduled data point both reports identify as a potential directional cue. Also relevant are oil prices and the trajectory of foreign inflows, which Mint said had already made November the strongest month for overseas buying in more than two years. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up over 1% and South Korea’s KOSPI down more than 0.50%, per BusinessLine, while Mint put the regional benchmark up 0.8%.

This article contains analyst views and market expectations, not financial advice; equity and commodity markets are volatile and outcomes can differ materially from forecasts.

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Sources: BusinessLine, Mint