OpenAI forecasts $50bn revenue, $20bn below its earlier guidance

OpenAI has told investors its revenue for this year will reach $50bn (£37bn), roughly $20bn below the figure it signalled last month, according to Theguardian. The projection is based on sales up to the end of September, and it landed as a visible miss against the $70bn estimate that had circulated widely in late September.

The difference is a matter of accounting rather than a sudden slump in demand, Cryptobriefing reported. OpenAI books only its share of sales made through partners, while Anthropic counts gross revenue from cloud partners including Amazon’s AWS and Google Cloud. Investors had been normalising OpenAI’s numbers to Anthropic’s method to compare the two labs directly, which produced the higher estimate.

Also read: Nvidia launches agent safety platform and $150bn buyback

Key facts

• OpenAI’s 2026 revenue projection is $50bn, against the $70bn it indicated to investors last month.
• Cryptobriefing reported the annualised run rate at roughly $50bn as of late September, up from over $40bn in August 2026 and around $20bn at the end of 2025.
• OpenAI is in early-stage talks to raise $30bn at a valuation of about $1.4tn.
• Tech stocks fell on the news, with the Nasdaq closing down 1.4%; Nvidia dropped 2.9%, Oracle 5.5% and Micron 4.8%.
• Anthropic, which counts cloud-partner revenue, reached $65bn in forecast revenue by the end of July.

A comparison problem, not a demand problem

Cryptobriefing framed the episode as a yardstick change rather than a business reversal, noting that OpenAI’s own disclosure under its own method simply looked smaller next to an investor-built number. Anthropic’s $65bn forecast revenue total by the end of July benefits from counting gross sales through AWS and Google Cloud, a treatment OpenAI does not apply.

The two outlets also describe OpenAI’s listing plans differently. Theguardian reported that Sam Altman said the company would not float on the stock market this year, citing AI safety concerns, and that Anthropic is expected to push ahead with an initial public offering as soon as next month. Cryptobriefing reported that OpenAI’s IPO is now expected in 2027, a timeline it said suggests a potential delay.

Also read: OpenAI safety leader David Robinson quits, calls culture 'broken'

Both accounts cite OpenAI’s March fundraising. Theguardian put that round at $122bn at a valuation of $852bn, and noted that Anthropic raised $65bn two months later at a $965bn valuation. Cryptobriefing reported the same March round at around $122bn and the current raise at over $30bn targeting roughly $1.4tn.

Cryptobriefing added detail on the company’s momentum: OpenAI said overall run-rate growth hit 77% in the third quarter, and enterprise revenue more than doubled since July 2026 — a point it said matters because business customers sign larger, stickier contracts than individual users.

Why it matters

Annualised revenue forecasts from the leading AI labs function as a demand gauge for a sector absorbing enormous capital, and a single private company’s disclosure moved public stocks it does not own. For investors in AI infrastructure and semiconductors, Cryptobriefing described the episode as a reminder about concentration risk. A valuation target near $1.4tn will be judged against the revenue OpenAI actually reports rather than estimates assembled by investors, and the smaller base makes the multiple look richer.

What to watch

Three items are live: whether OpenAI closes its raise of more than $30bn at the roughly $1.4tn target, how AI infrastructure stocks trade on the next OpenAI update, and whether the industry moves toward a common way of counting partner revenue. Anthropic’s expected IPO and OpenAI’s 2027 listing timeline are the next scheduled test points. This is not financial advice; these markets are volatile and uncertain.

Wider AI financing

On Friday it emerged that Masayoshi Son, founder of the Japanese investment company SoftBank, is seeking to raise up to $100bn from Gulf states as he scales up his AI investments, Theguardian reported. SoftBank has made a $65bn investment in OpenAI and has held discussions with Gulf investors including the United Arab Emirates. Last month it raised $11.1bn in the largest high-yield corporate bond sale globally on record, paying yields as high as 9.75%, to fund its bets on AI and semiconductor assets.

Written by

Benjamin

Benjamin Carter covers business, finance, and the stock market for StockPil, focusing on the trends and data that matter to everyday investors.

Sources: The Guardian, Cryptobriefing